Democrats are affected by the high unemployment in the blue state in the medium term
Unemployment in the blue state threatens to cause national problems for the Democrats in the mid-term of 2022. America has had a devastating fiscal year; This is especially true for many blue countries with persistently high unemployment. Historically tough for the party that holds the White House, next year’s elections could be especially if those voters direct their frustration with unemployment on the Democrats in Congress.
Unemployment is the lagging variable in America’s economic recovery. The economy as a whole essentially returned in the fourth quarter of 2020 and exceeded its pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2021. It will almost certainly see a fourth consecutive quarter of growth in the second quarter of this year.
In contrast, the country’s unemployment rate rose from 5.8 percent to 5.9 percent in the June employment report. This is well above the pre-pandemic rate of 3.5 percent from February 2020. Applying the higher labor force participation rate of 2020 to today’s employment level, the current rate would be an astronomical 8.5 percent.
As high as the official interest rate is today, it is far exceeded in many countries. Looking at unemployment from such a government perspective also makes it very biased. The countries with the highest unemployment rates are politically democratic.
Twenty jurisdictions (states and the District of Columbia) had unemployment rates at or above the national rate in May, with an average rate of 6.95 percent. Of these, the top 11 had Democratic governors (or mayors). Overall, 14 out of 20 also had Democratic governors, and these states had an average unemployment rate of 7.2 percent. If, as the official national quota, the quotas in these 20 countries are really higher, taking into account today’s low employment rate, then the real quotas in some countries would be in double digits.
These were not only strongly democratic in their chairman of the board. In the 2020 presidential election, 16 voted for the Democrats. Fourteen also have Democratic-controlled state senates and state houses.
The high unemployment in these 20 jurisdictions is not just a current state of slow recovery. They are a one year condition. In May 2020, unemployment in these 20 countries averaged 13.6 percent.
In qualitative terms, the political burden of such high and persistent unemployment is obvious; it is also quantitative. These 20 jurisdictions include 230, more than half, members of the House of Representatives. Currently 152 of them are Democrats; only 78 are Republicans. They also contain 38 senators (DC doesn’t have two senators); 29 of them are Democrats and 10 are up for election in November 2022.
Moreover, this politically skewed unemployment will be on top of the historically adverse effects suffered by the presidential party during the midterm elections. The recent history of their governments is sobering enough for the Democrats. Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonHuawei hires three new lobbying firms Inside Biden’s Pragmatic Approach to Coronavirus Rules Sustainable economic growth requires congressional regulatory reform MORE lost 54 House seats and nine Senate seats during 1994 Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaObama publishes 2021 summer reading list and continues tradition Republicans Want Democrats To Hammer Over Gas Prices Hillicon Valley: Warren Asks SEC To Take A Closer Look At Cryptocurrency Exchanges | Maryland City taken offline in massive ransomware attack | Huawei hires three new lobby companies MORE lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats in 2010.
Former House Speaker Tip O’Neill remarked, “All politics is local”. If voters with such persistently high unemployment see Democratic control at the local level as more a coincidence than a causation, it is a potentially big problem in November 2022.
The clear dominance of the Democrats in these states certainly shows that these voters are strongly inclined to them on issues. This would also be expected in 2022. In addition, the midterms of 2022 are well over a year away, giving unemployment time to recover.
But the economy is not just any issue and unemployment is not just part of it.
The state of the economy is the most widespread political issue. It affects everyone and a bad economy harms everyone. In addition, the economy has no more fundamental component than whether a person has a job.
Voters in these blue states tend to forgive the Democrats on issues. Still, asking them to forget is another matter. And asking them to forget the extremely high local unemployment for over a year requires even more. Therefore, not only do the Democrats need a general decline in unemployment, they need it in the blue states, where they are most politically and financially exposed.
JT Young served under President George W. Bush as director of communications in the Office of Management and Budget and as deputy assistant secretary for tax and budget matters in the Treasury Department. From 1987 to 2000 he worked as a congress employee.